Predictive Model of Chronic Wounds Identifies Risk Factors for Amputation and Death
Summary: Multistate model from Regenstrief Chronic Wound Registry/INPC (n=52,916 Indiana lower-extremity chronic wound patients, 2011-2021) predicts progression to amputation/death. Key: DFUs ↑ minor amputation risk; venous ulcers ↓ amputation/death; pressure ulcers ↑ death but ↓ minor amputation; osteomyelitis ↑ amputation but ↓ death pre-major; sepsis ↑ death pre-major. 3-year mortality: >10% post-diagnosis, ~13% post-minor, 19% post-major. Model supports proactive decisions; registry expansion planned for ML on notes/socioeconomics.
Key Highlights:
- Population: 52,916 patients; lower-extremity chronic wounds.
- Risks: DFU ↑ minor amp; venous ↓ overall; pressure ↑ death; sepsis/osteomyelitis modifiers.
- Mortality: 3-year >10% diagnosis, 13% minor amp, 19% major amp.
- Quotes: Schleyer/Choi on real-world data for earlier intervention.
- Source: Annals of Surgery (DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000006761).
Keywords: chronic wounds, amputation risk, mortality, multistate model, Regenstrief