easy-to-obtain clinical variables
We used data from a prospective analysis of 304 people with foot ulcer history who had 18-month follow-up for ulcer outcome. Demographic, disease-related and organization-of-care variables were included as potential predictors. Two logistic regression prediction models were created: model 1 for all recurrent foot ulcers (n=126 events) and model 2 for recurrent plantar foot ulcers (n=70 events). We used 10-fold cross-validation, each including five multiple imputation sets for internal validation. Performance was assessed in terms of discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0–1, 1=perfect discrimination), and calibration with the Brier Score (0–1, 0=complete concordance predicted vs observed values) and calibration graphs … read more